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Thread: charlie alsheimer's 2010 rut prediction, was it acurate?

  1. #1
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    charlie alsheimer's 2010 rut prediction, was it acurate?

    hey guys, sorry if somthing like this has been posted before. corect me if im wrong but i think charlie alsheimer predicted that this years rut would be later than normal and more sporadic. i was just wondering how everyone's rut was? i have been thinking alot about it and was wondering if there was any truth to his prediction?

    for me the actual rut wasnt later as far as the bucks chasing does, but the pre rut was alot later, every year the woods are tore up thanksgiving day where i hunt, almost every tree is rubbed and scrapes everywhere. this year there literaly was no sighn in the woods till about dec 10-12 . the deer seem to start chasing every year around the 12-15th and that was right on time this year, but it seemed like the pre-rut was non existent.

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  2. #2
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    I wouldnt say that his time frame was correct for NW Ohio but I will say that I have seen the best rut and longest rut in my area than I ever have. Not sure if thats because of the moon phase or the buck to doe ratio. I agree with you about the pre-rut it seemed that bucks began chasing/seeking for about a day and then it was on.

  3. #3
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    i went to his seminar when he came to ohio, marked what he suggested on my calendar, and to be quite frank...

    >>he was wrong<<

    it was the same as it always is, no need to ask off different days for the moon phase b/c that is b/s. play the weather and plan on a week before november until two weeks into november.same as every single other year
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  4. #4
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    Nope, his best guess was bogus. He should have stuck with orthodox days in November for the midwest.
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  5. #5
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    I saw the same thing I've seen every year for the past 20 years. Scattered rut activity occurring from late Oct through late Nov with mid November being the peak.
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  6. #6
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    It seemed more sporadic this year than previous years to me I saw almost no rut activity this year at all. I was happening here and there but I was here when they were rutting there and i was there when they were here go figure. Dont know if he was right or not but there was a lot more activity in mid December than there usually is around here....
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  7. #7
    I agree with him, i saw very little Peak rut activity. it was few and far between and i spent alot of time in the woods. between mass,NY and CT majority of guys i talked with saw the same thing....alot of nothing... I was very disappointed. I spent alot of time hunting funnels, with the sign to prove deer are in the area, just never saw the "pop" in the action like i did last year... or maybe i just picked the wrong stand everyday i went out.... But i would have to agree with his prediction. hppe this year is better as far as rut activity
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  8. #8
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    In my area in Ohio, I noted more actual rut - chasing - later in the season. But I believe we have such a lousy buck to doe ratio, that many does do not get bred the first cycle the first days in November. So those does that got "missed" come into estrus again and maybe again till some guy gets lucky and finds them. I saw at least three bucks hot on does and pushing them around during blackpowder days the second week of this current month of January. That is a new observation for me personally.
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  9. #9
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    Where I hunt in Michigan I saw little to no rut activity. In Ohio where we were in the first week of November there was alot of chasing going on. Saw several bucks chasing one doe almost every day that week, the weather was cold and almost perfect. The next week the temps went up and the buck activity slowed down.

    He was wrong for the area's that I hunt.

  10. #10
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    I saw what's called "trickle rut", with no defined "peak" at all... Others I've spoken to in the NE say the same...
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  11. #11
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    Nope, he wasn't even close. I saw very obvious peak chasing Nov 3-5. Charlie was calling for peak chasing on Thanksgiving week. About November 8 or 9 all the scrapes I was watching stopped being hit and movement decreased substantially, so I believe that's when the real breeding began in earnest.
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  12. #12
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    He was spot on for the area that i hunt.It was later than usual and very sporadic.
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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by passthru11 View Post
    I agree with him, i saw very little Peak rut activity. it was few and far between and i spent alot of time in the woods. between mass,NY and CT majority of guys i talked with saw the same thing....alot of nothing... I was very disappointed. I spent alot of time hunting funnels, with the sign to prove deer are in the area, just never saw the "pop" in the action like i did last year... or maybe i just picked the wrong stand everyday i went out.... But i would have to agree with his prediction. hppe this year is better as far as rut activity
    I had the exact opposite experience as you. I saw very good rutting activity between the last few days of October and around November 15th, after that, not much. In fact, I saw more rutting activity this year in that time frame than I have in several years. During what he said would be peak seeking/chasing, I saw nothing. This was in NJ and Ohio.

    I hunted almost every day during that time frame, and the few days I worked, I was working in a State Park that is open for hunting. I saw alot of deer and they were chasing all day. I also read the hunting reports on a local hunting forum from some guys hunting that park the same time I was there who said they saw nothing, rut wasn't happening.

    My brother, hunting the same farm as I was in Ohio, at the same time, where I saw great rutting activity, saw almost none.

    The rut is determined by photoperiodism every year, not the moon phase. What we see as far as rutting activity has a little to do with the weather, a little with hunting pressure and alot to do with stand location. If you are not in the spot where it's happening, you will not see it but it's still happening.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by DV1 View Post
    The rut is determined by photoperiodism every year, not the moon phase. What we see as far as rutting activity has to do a little with the weather, a little with hunting pressure and alot to do with stand location. If you are not in the spot where it's happening, you will not see it but it's still happening.
    True, but Moon light does effect photoperiodism....
    Shoot the buck first, then find out what he will really score.....

  15. #15
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    Gotta agree with nelliot, best rut ive seen in my 10 yrs of bowhunting
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  16. #16
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    What I saw last fall was what I have seen every fall, last week of October through mid November.

  17. #17
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    His prediction was wrong for where I was, but the rut was a little later than normal.
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  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grizz1219 View Post
    True, but Moon light does effect photoperiodism....
    Really??? Where did you get that?

    A "Photoperiod" is the "Recurring cycle of light and dark periods. The natural photoperiod is approximately 24 hours, and the ratio of light to dark hours slowly changes over the course of a year".

    Photoperiodism is an organism's reponse to the changing amount of daylight hours. Even though it can be bright out with a full moon, the nighttime is still considered "dark" hours, not "light" hours. Moon light cannot possibly be considered "light" hours or a simple cloudy night would throw mother nautre all out of whack.

  19. #19
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    If he predicted a scattered, sporatic, drawn out rut then he was right on. It never really "peaked" like it has in past years. Sometimes I would see groups of does and not a buck in sight.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by jagerace View Post
    I saw the same thing I've seen every year for the past 20 years. Scattered rut activity occurring from late Oct through late Nov with mid November being the peak.
    me too

  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by jagerace View Post
    I saw the same thing I've seen every year for the past 20 years. Scattered rut activity occurring from late Oct through late Nov with mid November being the peak.
    Ditto!! I have read his rut predictions for years, and I have always called BS. I think people try to get too scientific on what causes the rut, whether it's moon phase, photoperiodism etc etc. In my experience (Here in WV) it is the same every year. Bucks will start to move at the end of October, it will peak about the 1st to 2nd week of November, and then buck movement falls off drastically at the end of November and into December.

  22. #22
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    I had three great days on stand with rut activity. October 30th, November 3rd and November 8th. Same as usual..

  23. #23
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    Same as usual here.
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  24. #24
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    Nope, seemed to be right on time here in SW AR. Not later. I did see more bucks chasing than ever. I started seeing mature bucks on the move at mid day the third week of Oct. ( most of these were while I was driving on back roads )
    Don't forget the number of deer you see also depends on a combination of things, deer population , the food supply for your area for that year, weather conditions, hunting pressure. ( Most people forget that if the food supply is high, like after a very wet mild summer the deer movement will be lower and sightings will be way down ) I think does start getting bred the first week of Nov, peak the second week. and 30 days later 2nd week of Dec they have a secondary peak again and a 3rd in Jan. in this part of the country.

  25. #25
    From my treestand, It was the same as always in the three states I hunted. Not quite as intense as usual and didn't last too long, but the timing was exactly the same as always.
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