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Thread: When is Charles Alsheimer rut predictions this year?

  1. #1
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    When is Charles Alsheimer rut predictions this year?

    I saw online with the 2nd full moon of the fall equinox as November 10th, he's predicted the seeking-chasing period as 11-3 thru 11-12 and the peek breeding 11-13 thru 11-24. Was there any further break down on the seeking/chasing periods? Thanks.

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    I read an article the other day in which he said November 10-19th would be the best days with the peak being on the 15th this for north of the dividing line.
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    Jot those dates down and keep them somewhere safe. They'll pretty much be the same for the rest of your time on this earth...
    Steve

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    I will go out on a limb and state that the peak will be within a day or so of whatever it was last year (and the year before and before) for your area.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mn5503 View Post
    Jot those dates down and keep them somewhere safe. They'll pretty much be the same for the rest of your time on this earth...
    I AGREE.My last 4 bucks(last 4 years) have been killed between November 4-15

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    These "predictions" have never affected the way I hunt. Here in SW Iowa the best days to be in a stand are November 6-12 EVERY year. You see more bucks and more mature bucks in that time span than any other time of the season.............GUARANTEED.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mn5503 View Post
    Jot those dates down and keep them somewhere safe. They'll pretty much be the same for the rest of your time on this earth...
    Haha no kidding.
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    Who cares, his predictions are useless. a does estrous cycle is triggered by lessening light levels and occurs, within a day or two, the same time every year.

  9. #9
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    Thanks for the heads up Chuck, I had no idea the Kansas rut was going to happen in November. Now I can put in for vacation.

  10. #10
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    i think its funny you all say it happens the same time every year... last year i hunted every single day from NOV 3 thru Nov 14... it was unseasonably hot... i saw one shooter the entire time and less deer then i saw during oct. I picked my vacation based off of the theory of it never changes always the same. I have several friends who guide, and are lucky enough to have off all the time in the world and out of the nine guys when hunted the third week 8 of them filled their tags. All reported heavy activity. We also had a major cold front come thru. Maybe its just coincidence with the weather patterns or maybe the moon phase really does make a difference. I will never know that for certain. But according the the moon theory the third week was also the week they were suppose to start seeking.

  11. #11
    I could make those predictions. The Rut?...Let's see, I'll say sometime in November.

    the 3rd-24th pretty much covers the month.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BiggA View Post
    I could make those predictions. The Rut?...Let's see, I'll say sometime in November.

    the 3rd-24th pretty much covers the month.
    Yup!
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    I realize people think that rut times change but they really don't. Yeah, last year I don't think anyone saw as many deer as usual........it was HOT. But, that doesn't mean there wasn't just as much activity as usual. Alot of it was just going on at night. The rut has NOTHING to do with moon phase.......it's triggered the same time every year by the changing of lessoning of daylight hours.
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    Quote Originally Posted by huntin4Christ View Post
    I realize people think that rut times change but they really don't. Yeah, last year I don't think anyone saw as many deer as usual........it was HOT. But, that doesn't mean there wasn't just as much activity as usual. Alot of it was just going on at night. The rut has NOTHING to do with moon phase.......it's triggered the same time every year by the changing of lessoning of daylight hours.
    any proof of this?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ksgoosekillr View Post
    i think its funny you all say it happens the same time every year... last year i hunted every single day from NOV 3 thru Nov 14... it was unseasonably hot... i saw one shooter the entire time and less deer then i saw during oct. I picked my vacation based off of the theory of it never changes always the same. I have several friends who guide, and are lucky enough to have off all the time in the world and out of the nine guys when hunted the third week 8 of them filled their tags. All reported heavy activity. We also had a major cold front come thru. Maybe its just coincidence with the weather patterns or maybe the moon phase really does make a difference. I will never know that for certain. But according the the moon theory the third week was also the week they were suppose to start seeking.
    Temps make or break the daytime activity. Does go in to estrus when the amount of daylight gets shorter, it has nothing to do with the moon. If it's November 3rd and 75 in the afternoon you won't see much movement, if it's November 3rd and the high is 30 get ready for some action.

    The rut is happening regardless of the moon or the temperature, when it's warm everything happens at night and it seems like there is no rutting activity. The daylight gets shorter at the same time every year and that's why we laugh at his predictions. If the 3rd-12th is warm this year his prediction will seem wrong. If the cold air comes in during the 3rd-12th his prediction will seem spot on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kansas Bruisers View Post
    Temps make or break the daytime activity. Does go in to estrus when the amount of daylight gets shorter, it has nothing to do with the moon. If it's November 3rd and 75 in the afternoon you won't see much movement, if it's November 3rd and the high is 30 get ready for some action.

    The rut is happening regardless of the moon or the temperature, when it's warm everything happens at night and it seems like there is no rutting activity. The daylight gets shorter at the same time every year and that's why we laugh at his predictions. If the 3rd-12th is warm this year his prediction will seem wrong. If the cold air comes in during the 3rd-12th his prediction will seem spot on.
    once again any proof of this? because it seems like two opinions to me... just like the moon phases is an opinion... and im talking proof that the amount of daylight triggers anything other than just shorter days... we all know it happens

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kansas Bruisers View Post
    Temps make or break the daytime activity. Does go in to estrus when the amount of daylight gets shorter, it has nothing to do with the moon. If it's November 3rd and 75 in the afternoon you won't see much movement, if it's November 3rd and the high is 30 get ready for some action.

    The rut is happening regardless of the moon or the temperature, when it's warm everything happens at night and it seems like
    there is no rutting activity. The daylight gets shorter at the same time every year and that's why we laugh at his predictions. If the 3rd-12th is warm this year his prediction will seem wrong. If the cold air comes in during the 3rd-12th his prediction will seem
    spot on.
    agreed!
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  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by ksgoosekillr View Post
    any proof of this?
    Look up Photoperiodism. Almost every whitetail expert, by expert I mean scientists, agree that the shortening of daylight is what triggers a does estrus cycle.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ksgoosekillr View Post
    any proof of this?
    I don't think there is any 100% proof of anything about whitetails & rut behavior. But keep a log for the next 5 years of your hunting day by day. I guarantee there will be a 5-7 day window that is the most consistent time period for mature buck activity.

    I'm not trying to sound arrogant or put you down at all...........but from my experiences and MANY MANY others this is what I am 99% sure is correct.
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  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by ksgoosekillr View Post
    any proof of this?
    Yes, there's actually a very significant amount of quantifiable data to support his statement.

    Most major universities with large Deer research centers have done some type of research surround this subject, as well as your more popular deer biologists, too.
    Last edited by CUPPEDFowl; September 29th, 2011 at 04:51 PM. Reason: Added content

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    Quote Originally Posted by mn5503 View Post
    jot those dates down and keep them somewhere safe. They'll pretty much be the same for the rest of your time on this earth...
    lol !
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  22. #22
    Moon rutting times are a joke from everything I've seen the last decade. Sells magazines, and makes me doubt anything else he says.
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  23. #23
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    There is something in nature that triggers breeding time, migration ect. Have to agree with daylight , planet tilt ,stars telling them to breed for the best chance of survival of the offspring, happens same time of year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CUPPEDFowl View Post
    Yes, there's actually a very significant amount of quantifiable data to support his statement.

    Most major universities with large Deer research centers have done some type of research surround this subject, as well as your more popular deer biologists, too.
    ya know ive been bow hunting for the last 15 years, everyone is right that it happens in NOVEMBER... but i have never read one single article or finding that can predict ahead of time what will happen in WILD deer. I really dont follow or adhere to any schedule other than colder weather. What i want to read is scientifc proof that one or the other is the deciding factor...

    JUST FYI all articles one Photoperiodism relate back to or mention moon phases....

  25. #25
    Also keep in mind, every set of woods seems to be different. I had incredible buck action last year from Oct 28th -Nov 3. After then it really diminished in my woods after that. I saw my biggest buck of the season at 1pm on oct 31. A buddy of mine hunting 5 miles from me had very very little action at this time. I think it depends on the weather #1, and then the doe/buck heard for that particular area. Dont kid yourself, these old bucks know exactly what doe is going to come into estros first.

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