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Thread: 2008 Rut Prediction...based on Charles Alsheimer info

  1. #1
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    2008 Rut Prediction...based on Charles Alsheimer info

    Last year, 2007, I can remember watching Deer and Deer Hunting's "Rutting Moon" episode and hearing Charles Alsheimer telling viewers to be sure to be in the woods around Halloween. Last year I saw lots of activity around the days leading up to the end of October, and the temperatures were well above normal as I remember wearing my lightweight early season camo when on stand on October 27th. Most of us know, and Mr. Alsheimer agrees, that most great ruts happen when the temperature is in the 30s or low 40s.



    His theory was based off of the Autumnal Equinox, and the 2nd full moon after it. He then went on to say that he would be sure to be on stand 7-10 days after that 2nd full moon. His theory led him to believe that the bucks would be full into the "chase phase" and at their highest level of testosterone. Last year, that would put him on stand from November 2nd thru November 5th.

    So, applying that same rationale to 2008 makes for a late rut.

    This year, the Autumnal Equinox falls on September 22, 2008. First full moon after that isn't until October 14th, the second full moon isn't until November 13th. Which means that Charles Alsheimer's best days to hunt and whitetails peak testosterone would be November 20th thru 23/24th. That is very bad news for Pennsylvania archers, as our season only runs through November 15th.
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  2. #2
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    dude...u just need 2 be in the woods first week of nov. everything will be fine

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    Look at the bright side most biologist don't put much stock in chucks moon theory. I have read some of his books and it just seems in my neck of the woods it all starts happening around the same time every year.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAKraig View Post
    Last year, 2007, I can remember watching Deer and Deer Hunting's "Rutting Moon" episode and hearing Charles Alsheimer telling viewers to be sure to be in the woods around Halloween. Last year I saw lots of activity around the days leading up to the end of October, and the temperatures were well above normal as I remember wearing my lightweight early season camo when on stand on October 27th. Most of us know, and Mr. Alsheimer agrees, that most great ruts happen when the temperature is in the 30s or low 40s.

    His theory was based off of the Autumnal Equinox, and the 2nd full moon after it. He then went on to say that he would be sure to be on stand 7-10 days after that 2nd full moon. His theory led him to believe that the bucks would be full into the "chase phase" and at their highest level of testosterone. Last year, that would put him on stand from November 2nd thru November 5th.

    So, applying that same rationale to 2008 makes for a late rut.

    This year, the Autumnal Equinox falls on September 22, 2008. First full moon after that isn't until October 14th, the second full moon isn't until November 13th. Which means that Charles Alsheimer's best days to hunt and whitetails peak testosterone would be November 20th thru 23/24th. That is very bad news for Pennsylvania archers, as our season only runs through November 15th.
    you should probably sell all your gear. cause your season is ruined already..........

    the BEST time to be in the woods. is ANYTIME you can be in the woods.
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  5. #5
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    I just looked in his book hunting whitetails by the moon and according to it in 2007 the best time to be hunting the chase phase was oct 22-31. Last year I killed a P&Y buck on nov 17 chasing a doe

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    Quote Originally Posted by dac View Post
    I just looked in his book hunting whitetails by the moon and according to it in 2007 the best time to be hunting the chase phase was oct 22-31. Last year I killed a P&Y buck on nov 17 chasing a doe
    Apparently that P&Y buck didn't get the memo about Chuck's theory


    you should probably sell all your gear. cause your season is ruined already..........

    the BEST time to be in the woods. is ANYTIME you can be in the woods.
    Easy fella.

    Every year someone tries to be the first to spot the rut. I just thought I'd relate one person's theory to the rest of AT. Take it as you will. I get 3-4 days vacation to use during archery season, so I like to maximize that time in the woods. So, while I don't have a Charles Alsheimer shrine in the corner of my den, I can be quite certain that he has had the opportunity to spend much more time observing whitetail deer than I likely ever will....at the very least, that's worth a little respect and attention.
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  7. #7
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    say what you will but wildlife biologists have said that the moon has nothing to do with rut, it has to do with a does senses of daylight in a day, they cant say when or how but have studied the moon theory and disproved it. ya rut happens about the same time every year, but varies from place to place.

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    How does this theory account for the difference in rut timing from north to south. Is he saying that the deer in IL and deer in TX rut at the same time? Here is some interesting reading and charts from Texas Parks and Wildlife's rut study.

    http://www.tpwd.state.tx.us/huntwild...tetailed_deer/

    They spend a lot more time than the moon dude studying deer in their area and find significant variance just within the state. To theorize that all deer in the country are triggering off some common celestial event seems a little out there to me.
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    all you need to worry about is being there the first two weeks, just like every year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bwhtr21 View Post
    all you need to worry about is being there the first two weeks, just like every year.
    Must be nice to have enough vacation to take off those 2 weeks along with taking a vacation with a family and other days throughout the year for miscellaneous activities....
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  11. #11
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    I was a sucker last year. I took a week of vac. in late OCT and hunted hard. Didn't see much. Nov. 11th killed a nice 9 point pushing a doe. I am rereading the Strategies for whitetails again. It is interesting reading and informative. I just will not 100% believe his calender of predictions.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by PAKraig View Post
    full moon isn't until November 13th. Which means that Charles Alsheimer's best days to hunt and whitetails peak testosterone would be November 20th thru 23/24th. That is very bad news for Pennsylvania archers, as our season only runs through November 15th.
    Nope. That's not what Mr. Alsheimer suggests.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Bowhunter 1188 View Post
    Nope. That's not what Mr. Alsheimer suggests.

    Charlie says when the full moon is on the 13th or later, the breeding will start on the full moon and last up to 14 days thereafter. The seeking phase will start on the 10th this year, according to Charlie. I don't know when he claims the chase phase would be because in his article is not clear.

    Here is an bit from his article:

    When the second full moon after the autumnal equinox falls between late October and November 12th, the seeking phase of the rut will start approximately three to four days before the full moon and run three to four days after it. The chasing phase will kick in a couple days after the full moon and be intense for about ten days following the full moon. The breeding phase will begin about seven days after the full moon and last about fourteen days thereafter if the herd is fine-tuned (meaning it has good nutrition, good habitat, a good sex ratio, and a well represented mature buck population). Note that the phases will overlap somewhat.
    When the second full moon after the autumnal equinox occurs November 13th or later, the seeking phase will begin approximately three days before the full moon. However, the chasing phase will begin a little earlier than normal, and the breeding phase will occur from the full moon to fourteen days thereafter in fine-tuned herds. So, when the rutting moon appears late, the breeding phase takes place a little sooner than when it appears in early November.
    http://www.charliealsheimer.com/ca/a...s/touched.html

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    First week of JAN. here in north FL
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    From my perspective Charile has just developed a new way to get to the same dates. second full week in Nov is when I take off here in Iowa always seems to be about right.
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  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by WhitBri View Post
    From my perspective Charile has just developed a new way to get to the same dates. second full week in Nov is when I take off here in Iowa always seems to be about right.
    I agree. His dates are usually close, so it is hard to verify his theory. However, in cases like last year, he is a bit off with the timing.

  17. #17
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    I think Charlie has Alsheimers
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  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bowhunter 1188 View Post
    Charlie says when the full moon is on the 13th or later, the breeding will start on the full moon and last up to 14 days thereafter. The seeking phase will start on the 10th this year, according to Charlie. I don't know when he claims the chase phase would be because in his article is not clear.

    Here is an bit from his article:



    http://www.charliealsheimer.com/ca/a...s/touched.html
    Wow, that was some of the most confusing reading I've ever done, the part you copied and pasted from his site that is.

    I just went back through my hunting journal on my work computer and the most noticeable thing I've come up with is similarities among every other year, and that's even borderline.

    2003 - Killed a buck on the last Monday of season, and saw 2 other buck chasing (can someone confirm this date, not sure when the season ran) EARLY?

    2004 - No kill myself, but talked to lot of guys that killed buck over the weekend of the 4, 5, 6th. LATE

    2005 - Missed a buck chasing in mid October. Most likely just a coincidence, but I did not notice any type of significant rut during the PA archery season. EARLY?

    2006 - Killed a buck on November 10th after he followed a doe in heat drag rag right to my tree. LATE

    2007 - Grunted buck to within range on October 27th. EARLY

    2008 - LATE? Last week of season? Only time will tell....

    So, what dates is Alsheimer saying for '08?
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  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by PAKraig View Post

    So, what dates is Alsheimer saying for '08?
    Well according to what part of his article you read, he says the seeking phase will start 3 days before the full moon because the full moon is on the 11-13-08 (my b-day, btw!!). He said when the full moon is late like this, breeding will start on the full moon and last for 14 days. So he says the rut will be short, but still suggests peak breeding will be sometime around the same time it is EVERY year.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bowhunter 1188 View Post
    Well according to what part of his article you read, he says the seeking phase will start 3 days before the full moon because the full moon is on the 11-13-08 (my b-day, btw!!). He said when the full moon is late like this, breeding will start on the full moon and last for 14 days. So he says the rut will be short, but still suggests peak breeding will be sometime around the same time it is EVERY year.
    Well, in all honesty, last July/August was the first I had ever even heard of Charles Alsheimer and he told me (and the rest of the country) that the rut in the northern states, like his home state of Wisconsin, would be early, or at the end of October moreso than the end of the first week of November. Turned out to be true for me, and most of the guys in my area that took off their usual last week of the season got skunked.

    So, here I've been, singing his praises all year. Now I've come to realize that it's really not that hard to say "Somewhere from October 25 through November 20th." I'm saying I'll kill my buck this year on November 10th...if I don't have his summer patterns figured out and get him the first week

    The fortunate part of my job is that I can watch the forecast, and pick and choose my days to hunt those weeks. Can't wait to see overnight lows around freezing, highs in the mid 40s, and winds at 5-10 mph out of the northwest...or northeast; I've got a stand for that too.

    (I'll post this on the other thread too, just we're all on the same page.)
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  21. #21
    Okay I just read Charlie's article again. I'll share some interesting points about this year's rut and a what if scenario with a full moon a day earlier and how drastically that would change the rut according to Charlie.

    I think we can all agree the best time to hunt is during the seeking and chasing phases, which is before the breeding phase. So if the full moon is on or after the 13th, Charlie says there will be only 6 days of seeking and chasing at best before breeding begins. But, if the rut is a "classic" rut, when the full moon is before the 13th, there will be between a dozen and 15 days of seeking and chasing before the breeding phase.

    Basically Charlie says when the full moon is early in November, or late in October, you simply add 7 days and that's when the breeding will begin. He said the ideal day for breeding is on the new moon. However, when the full moon is on the 13th, or later you add no more than 1 or 2 days before breeding begins. The new moon this year is on the 27th. This is much later than what we normally expect for the rut. That's why he put the "exception" into his theory so it fits better to the middle of November time frame. I don't doubt he observed breeding to be in the heart of the month. He uses the moon to explain the timing, but makes the exception to keep his theory to the timetable of the breeding phase around the 15th.

    So according to Charlie's theory, seeking will start around the 10th, chasing will be almost non existent because it will quickly go into the breeding phase around the 13th-14th time period. Breeding will last until the end of the month according to Charlie.

  22. #22
    Here's a better article about the rut. Use these timeframes in the article for every season, no matter what the moon phase is. Disregard the DATES about the moon phase. However, notice what they say about the moon phase and deer movement, not the timing of the rut.

    http://www.fieldandstream.com/articl...ct.-27--Nov.-8

    http://www.fieldandstream.com/articl...ov.-16--Dec.-1
    Last edited by Bowhunter 1188; August 14th, 2008 at 01:49 PM.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bowhunter 1188 View Post
    Okay I just read Charlie's article again. I'll share some interesting points about this year's rut and a what if scenario with a full moon a day earlier and how drastically that would change the rut according to Charlie.

    I think we can all agree the best time to hunt is during the seeking and chasing phases, which is before the breeding phase. So if the full moon is on or after the 13th, Charlie says there will be only 6 days of seeking and chasing at best before breeding begins. But, if the rut is a "classic" rut, when the full moon is before the 13th, there will be between a dozen and 15 days of seeking and chasing before the breeding phase.

    Basically Charlie says when the full moon is early in November, or late in October, you simply add 7 days and that's when the breeding will begin. He said the ideal day for breeding is on the new moon. However, when the full moon is on the 13th, or later you add no more than 1 or 2 days before breeding begins. The new moon this year is on the 27th. This is much later than what we normally expect for the rut. That's why he put the "exception" into his theory so it fits better to the middle of November time frame. I don't doubt he observed breeding to be in the heart of the month. He uses the moon to explain the timing, but makes the exception to keep his theory to the timetable of the breeding phase around the 15th.

    So according to Charlie's theory, seeking will start around the 10th, chasing will be almost non existent because it will quickly go into the breeding phase around the 13th-14th time period. Breeding will last until the end of the month according to Charlie.
    Charlie should point that telescope toward the south about 2000 miles and he would realize that his observations failed to account for regional variability of whitetail behavior. The rut where I hunt in Texas is typically early to mid December with the pre rut starting around Thanksgiving. Hey FL guys, hows old Charlie's theory work for you?
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  24. #24
    Once again, here's a link for the info I got according to Charlie.

    http://www.charliealsheimer.com/ca/a...s/touched.html

  25. #25
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    I wouldn't take what Charlie says about the timing of the rut to seriously. It is interesting to hear what and when he thinks the rut will be and comparing it to your area. I know last fall in my area it wasn't anything like what Charlie predicted it would be.
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